The Boss' Day Screw Up

Sorry, but I jumped the gun for Boss' Day. It is in fact Oct. 16, not Oct. 9 as indicated in the earlier post.

So don't put the fruit basket on his/her desk quite yet.

Don't Forget Tomorrow (Correction: Next Friday) Is Boss' Day

You didn't do it did you? You brown nose.


Ah, and you got him the fruit basket. Do you have no soul!

WSJ.com: Office Rents Dive As Vacancies Rise

Editor's Note: The following article appeared in the Oct. 7 Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125488352504069971.html?mod=djemTMB

Rent for office space is falling at the fastest pace in more than a decade as vacancies create a glut and landlords slash prices to attract tenants.

Nationwide, effective office rents fell 8.5% in the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago, the steepest year-over-year decline since 1995, according to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm.

The decline came as companies returned a net 19.6 million square feet of space to landlords in the third quarter, slightly more than in the second quarter. For the first three quarters of this year, the net decline in occupied space totaled a record 64.2 million square feet, the highest so-called negative absorption recorded since Reis began tracking the data in 1980. (That doesn't count space that left the market as a result of the 2001 terrorist attacks.)

The vacancy rate, meanwhile, hit 16.5%, a five-year high, according to Reis.

Declining rents and rising vacancies in the office sector signal more woes for the commercial-real-estate market, which already faces a lack of credit and plummeting property values. With landlords more likely to default, financial institutions, which hold trillions of dollars in commercial-real-estate debt also face more pain. "It means more losses for the banks, because they will have to write off more bad debt," said Victor Calanog, director of research for Reis.

For tenants, however, falling rents represent opportunities to save. Landlords are offering concessions, in the form of free rent and build-out costs. "There's a recognition [from some companies] that this is probably a bottom, let me lock in long term," said Mary Ann Tighe, a New York-based leasing broker with CB Richard Ellis, who has negotiated corporate relocations for tenants including advertising firm Ogilvy & Mather and retailer Limited Brands.

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Last Chance To Win Springsteen Tickets

Win tickets to see Bruce Springsteen in Cleveland on Nov. 10. Answer our poll question by Wednesday October 7 for a chance to win. It will only take two minutes!

Good luck!

WSJ.com: Recession Spells End for Many Family Businesses

Editor's Note: This article ran in the Oct. 6 Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125478399429765967.html?mod=djemSB

Siblings Georgia, Jimmy and John Roussos have spent most of their lives working in the kitchen of the restaurant their father opened in 1954. The eatery managed to survive a hurricane and other setbacks, but it wasn't until this August that the recession took its toll, forcing Roussos Restaurant in Daphne, Ala., to permanently shut its doors.

After months of slow sales, family businesses are being forced to close, ending legacies and leaving behind a wake of sad customers and loyal employees. "Some family businesses that were just hanging on have said it's time to get out," says Dann Van Der Vliet, director of the Vermont Family Business Initiative at the University of Vermont.

An estimated 90% of U.S. businesses are family-owned or controlled, from traditional small businesses to a third of Fortune 500 firms, according to the Small Business Administration. Hard data are hard to come by on the number of small family-controlled enterprises that have closed in this recession, but experts say the prolonged slump has hurt a significant number. About 4.3 million businesses with 19 or fewer employees closed during the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

These businesses, often steeped in tradition and not as flexible to change, tend not to have formal plans in place to respond to crisis. "They've seen reductions in top line revenue that they just can't react fast enough to," says Beth Wood, assistant vice president of market development and family-business advocacy with MassMutual. Problems securing credit in this recession have also prevented some family businesses from getting the funding they need, she adds.

The economic downturn is really just the latest setback for family-run businesses. In the 1970s and '80s, exorbitant income taxes and estate taxes forced many to close, says John Ward, professor of family enterprise with Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management. Before that, the anti-establishment movement during and after the Vietnam War made many children reluctant to take over the family business, he says.

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WSJ.com: Unemployment Will Stay Elevated

Editor's Note: The following article ran in the Oct. 02 Wall Street Journal. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/10/02/feds-rosengren-unemployment-rate-will-remain-elevated/?mod=djemWEB&reflink=djemWEB

Unemployment in the U.S. is likely to remain elevated for the next two of years, but over time the country will return to “full employment,” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President and Chief Executive Eric Rosengren said Friday.

Rosengren’s comments came as the U.S. Labor Department reported that employers shed many more jobs than expected last month, boosting the unemployment rate and underscoring that joblessness remains a big issue even as the economy shows signs of life.

Rosengren said the “unemployment rate will remain elevated for far longer than I would like,” and for the next couple of years. But over time, he said, “I think the economy will get back to full employment.”

Rosengren discussed the matter while answering audience questions following an address to the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce. He discussed unemployment as he responded to a question about the New England economy, which he said is in better shape than it was in prior recessions due to the health of local banks and the types of jobs in the region.

In his prepared remarks, Rosengren said the economy needs more time to heal before the Fed eases up on its accommodative monetary policy. The Fed needs to eventually ease its accommodative fiscal policy as well, he said later, but “first we have to get the economy in recovery mode and get us closer to full employment.”

He talked about the importance of returning to full employment without households becoming over-leveraged in the process. “The goal is not to get leverage back to where it was before,” he said. “The goal is to get the economy back.”

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WSJ.com: September Sales May Foreshadow Holidays

Editor's Note: The following is a story appearing in the Oct. 5 Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125470031540363025.html?mod=djemITP

Retailers and analysts will be closely watching September sales reports due Thursday from key store chains for any sign they may need to adjust their already-gloomy holiday forecasts.

Two analyst reports predict that Christmas-season sales will be flat with last year's dismal results while a third projects they will fall 1%. Stores have been slashing inventories in hopes they can avoid profit-sapping price cuts.

Retailers also are planning plenty of bargains to lure thrifty holiday shoppers. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. says it will offer about 100 toys priced at $10 -- compared with just 10 such toys last year. Consumers are still "under a lot of pressure," said Wal-Mart's chief executive, Mike Duke.

For consumers, "it's a badge of honor to not spend as much as they used to," Linda Heasley, CEO of specialty retailer The Limited, said at a retail conference in New York last week.

Analysts are looking to the September sales figures for stores open least a year -- a key measure of retailers' health and consumer spending -- for clues about Christmas. These results are predicted to fall 1% to 2% compared to September 2008. That would be a harbinger of a season filled with bargain hunting and last-minute gift shopping.

The projected September decline is particularly worrisome because a late Labor Day and later school-start dates helped boost the month's sales, and a decline in September sales last year makes year-ago comparisons easier.

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Fall Leaves Balance Between Beauty And Mess

WSJ.com: Job Losses in U.S. Continue to Slow

Editor's Note: The following is an article appearing in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday Oct. 1. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125431265253152341.html?mod=djemITP.

The pace of U.S. job losses continued to slow in September as the private sector shed fewer jobs than in the previous month, according to a report offering a preview of government data due Friday.

Meanwhile, gross domestic product decreased at a 0.7% annual rate in the second quarter, better than the 1% decline previously estimated, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It was a big improvement over GDP's 6.4% decline in the first quarter.

Private nonfarm payrolls fell by 254,000 in September, down from the 277,000 drop in August, according to a report by Automatic Data Processing Inc. and forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers released Wednesday.

"We know that the pace of labor-market recovery always lags broader economic activity," said Ian Pollick, a TD Securities analyst. So "if the actual economic recovery is gradual we have to say the labor-market recovery is tepid at best."

Separately, the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index provided a jolt of unexpectedly bad news, falling to 46.1 in September from 50. The drop below 50 indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting. A decline in new orders contributed to the fall, which was particularly surprising given improving regional reports elsewhere, such as the Philadelphia and New York Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing indexes.

September's job losses were the smallest since July 2008. Analysts expect a similar level of job losses in the official employment report the U.S. Labor Department is set to release Friday that includes public-sector jobs, though it may be slightly smaller than the drop ADP reported.

The job losses were especially severe among businesses with fewer than 50 workers. Those companies shed 100,000 jobs compared with the 93,000 jobs lost at medium-size firms and the 61,000 lost at large employers with 500 or more workers.

The labor market is slowly improving compared with earlier this year but it remains weak. Economists expect the unemployment rate to hit 9.8% in September, up from 9.7% in August. Even with the high unemployment rate threatening consumer spending in the third quarter, many economists are predicting GDP grew between 3% and 4%.

The anticipated return to growth is buoyed by Wednesday's report showing that second-quarter GDP wasn't as bad as expected. Both business investment and consumer spending, which is the largest component of GDP, were revised upward.

There were few signs that inflation could soon become a threat to the economy as the government's price index for personal consumption rose 1.4% in the second quarter instead of the previous 1.3% estimate. Excluding food and energy, the price index climbed 2%.

Poll Results: Casino Gambling in Ohio

We've had 92 responses as of late Wednesday morning for our poll question on casino gambling in Ohio. And so far, the vast majority are for Issue 3.

Here is a for argument from the Web and an against argument.

Overall, 76 percent said they are in favor of the bill. That left 22.8 percent against the issue and 5.4 percent without an opinion, according to our informal survey.

Remember, there is still time to answer our poll question to be eligible for the Bruce Springsteen tickets!

Here are some of the comments people posted after taking the survey:

The state of California hasn't prospered from casino gambling. They're bankrupt! Keep OHIO Clean. Better to work out tax agreements with neighboring states for Ohio residents gambling in their casinos. I would think THEY wouldn't want gambling legalized in OHIO either. So they would want to assist in the lobbying against Ohio gambling.

Even if the number of permanent jobs is not great, the construction and ancillary jobs created would be a good boost to the local economy. Timing is everything and soon the market will be saturated with gambling facilities and this will not be as lucrative as it is right now.

IF IT WAS STATE WIDE IT WOULD BE DIFFERENT BUT WITH IT ONLY TARGETING JUST LARGE CITIES, NO

I am almost considering voting against this issue simply because of the way they are advertising it. I received a flier in the mail yesterday and if I didn't know any better, I would think it is a bill to build a hospital or something other than a casino. "CASINO" was no where to be found on the flier. Almost trying to gain votes by deception.